As of September 5, 2026, Bitcoin is trading 46.8% below its power-law fair value of $149,707 — currently modestly below trend.
Fair value (trend)
$149,707
Live price
$79,620
Deviation
-46.8%
Floor (-2σ)
$37,254
Ceiling (+2σ)
$601,608
Model: price = a·days^b (a=1.7e-17, b=5.76), floor/ceiling at ±2σ. Fair value refreshes hourly. Not financial advice.
What am I looking at?
The orange line is Bitcoin's long-term trend - a rough "fair value" for each date.
Green zones (below the line) mean Bitcoin is cheaper than its trend; red zones (above) mean it's pricier than its trend.
The bands are measured in standard deviations (σ). The inner band (±1σ) is the everyday range Bitcoin sits in about 68% of the time; the outer band (±2σ) is the wider range it stays inside about 95% of the time. The floor support above is that outer -2σ edge.
The "σ from trend over time" strip shows how cheap or expensive Bitcoin has been through every cycle - notice each peak reaching less extreme than the last.
How do I use the controls?
a and b shape the trend line. Drag their sliders and every chart updates instantly.
Best fit lets the math choose the trend line that hugs real prices most closely.
The Display checkboxes turn the bands, the log-log view, and the σ history strip on and off.
Reset to defaults returns everything to the standard values.
The Power Law is the admitted time-trend instrument of Bitcoin Field Theory - a framework that tests every famous indicator and publishes the verdicts, pass or fail.See the Indicator Census ↗